International Monetary Fund predicts 7.3% growth rate for India in current fiscal year

Irving Hamilton
October 11, 2018

Iran's economy is now forecast to contract this year and especially in 2019, by 3.6 percent, "on account of reduced oil production, before returning to modest positive growth in 2020-23", according to the International Monetary Fund. It said, the prediction is lower due to recent increase in oil prices and the tightening of global financial conditions.

The IMF issues the report ahead of the Annual IMF and World Bank meetings where world leaders, finance ministers and nongovernmental organizations will gather this week in Bali, Indonesia.

He stated, "Nigeria's growth, 1.9 per cent this year; 2.3 next year".

Even though the latest report of the International Monetary Fund predicts that global growth will remain steady this year, and in 2019, at last year's 3.7 percent expansion rate, the multilateral institution points to the writing on the wall for several emerging economies.

The downgrade reflects a confluence of factors, including the introduction of import tariffs between the USA and China, weaker performances by euro zone countries, Japan and Britain.

The Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department at the IMF, Maurice Obstfeld disclosed the Fund's new projection for global economic growth.

"In Nigeria, inflation is projected to fall to 12.4 per cent in 2018 from 16.5 per cent in 2017, and to rise to 13.5 per cent in 2019".

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The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.4 percent this year - down from April's prediction of 1.6 percent - while predicted growth for 2019 remains at 1.5 percent, a slowdown from 1.7 percent in 2017. "Poverty will lead to an increasing crime rate and the tall claims of 10 million jobs and five million house would not materialize", Wizarat warned.

The IMF specifically mentioned the situation in Argentina and Turkey - two countries with heavy external debt. Interest rates remain low by historical standards, and financial conditions are still supporting growth, it said.

Some energy-rich emerging market countries have fared better due to higher oil prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation seeing forecast upgrades.

The IMF expects the United States economy to continue growing this year at 2.9%, but sees that rate falling to 2.5% next year amid the country's escalating trade war with China. "We see the future of industry as being bleak as investors are trying hard to sustain growth momentum", Syed Mazhar Ali Nasir, senior vice president of the Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry, told Arab News. "Our probability that we would attach to further bad news has gone up", Obstfeld said.

"China and a number of Asian economies are also projected to experience somewhat weaker growth in 2019 in the aftermath of the recently announced trade measures", it said.

Foreign-currency reserves have plunged 40% in 2018 to the lowest in nearly four years, while the nation is running twin current-account and budget deficits of more than 5% of gross domestic product.

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