Picking against the spread week 11

Rex Christensen
November 11, 2018

Will FSU football players freeze this weekend in South Bend?

To get there from here, a few significant hurdles need to be cleared.

Ohio State (10) by 4.5 over Michigan State: I have missed on Ohio State football games five times in a row by picking them to cover. Baylor and Texas Tech (5-4, 3-3) are guaranteed to play at the site of the championship game-they play each other at AT&T Stadium on November 24. On the good side, WVU is into the top 10 and still has a game against another top 10 team - No. 6 Oklahoma comes to Morgantown the day after Thanksgiving.

Big 12 co-leaders No. 6 Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1 Big 12, No. 6 CFP) and No. 7 West Virginia (7-1, 5-1, No. 9 CFP) still have to play each other in the regular season finale. Let's see if I can't get back on the winning track this week. The Sooners and Mountaineers are tied for first atop the conference, moving toward a November 23 showdown with playoff implications in Morgantown, West Virginia. As tempting as it is to look ahead, the Sooners face Oklahoma State this weekend in the Bedlam rivalry, which Oklahoma usually wins but infrequently easily.

Week 11 is likely the last ranked team either will face ahead of a conference title game. Auburn will have something to say about that. N.C. State 42-20. Fresno State 24-17. I don't know if this is a "get right" game for the Buckeyes, but I do believe it's a spread they'll cover.

Oklahoma State at No. 6 Oklahoma (-17.5) - 3:30 p.m. on ABC: Oklahoma State has already shown it can play up for a game when the situation calls for it, but can it do it twice? Notre Dame 34-14.

MI (4) by 39 over Rutgers: My gut says MI covers but 39 points is a lot to give so I'll take Rutgers and the points.

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Oklahoma State (plus 18.5) at No. 6 Oklahoma: Week to week the Cowboys' performance has been all over the place. The Jayhawks-Wildcats loser will be the first Big 12 team with seven losses this season. West Virginia 35-17.

Only Kansas and Kansas State (both 3-6, 1-5) have been mathematically eliminated from Big 12 title contention. Ohio State 27-21.

LSU (7) by 13 over Arkansas: LSU is overrated but Arkansas stinks. Tennessee 20-16, upset special. Not this week because I think this game will be decided by a field goal so I'll take Michigan State and the points.

SC (plus 6.5) at No. 19 Florida: Stop me if you've heard this one before: The Gators are searching for answers at quarterback.

Michigan has been crushing Big Ten competition on their schedule so far, beating Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State by an average score of 33-9. Texas plays at Texas Tech, and Iowa State is home against Baylor this Saturday. The Noles have won the past three in the series.

Northwestern (plus 10) at Iowa: Wildcats can lose this and still win the Big Ten West by finishing with victories against Minnesota and IL. But the Longhorns lost at home to the Mountaineers when Grier ran for a game-winning 2-point conversion last week. It's one thing for Nick Fitzgerald to look like a complete quarterback against Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech', but it's a completely different thing to do it against the Crimson Tide. But that didn't happen, and no tiebreaker was needed to set up the title game matchup between 8-1 Oklahoma and 7-2 TCU. Season: 159-61 straight; 114-104-1 against the spread. Best bets: 3-6 (against the spread).

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